💵 $1 Trillion Milestone: China’s trade surplus hit a record $1.08 trillion after just 11 months, surpassing the full-year total of 2024. November alone delivered a $112 billion surplus.
🇺🇸 U.S. drops out, rest of the world steps in: Shipments to the U.S. plunged 29%, while exports to Europe (+14.8%), Australia (+35.8%), Africa (+28%) and Southeast Asia (+8.2%) surged. China is clearly redirecting its export engine toward new markets.
🏗️ Trade replaces domestic demand: Net exports now account for nearly one-third of economic growth. The property crisis and weak consumption continue to drag on the economy. Imports rose only +1.9%, while exports jumped +5.9%.
⚙️ Machinery, chips & electronics fuel the boom: Growth is driven mainly by electronics and semiconductors. Chip shortages are pushing up prices, while Chinese firms increasingly import components globally—often from their own overseas factories.
🇪🇺 Europe next in line: After the U.S. tariff war, tensions are shifting toward the EU. President Macron openly threatens tariffs over overcapacity in EVs, steel and clean tech. Europe’s patience with China’s export wave is visibly wearing thin.
Background
China continues to offset weak domestic demand with an aggressive global export strategy to keep its annual GDP growth target of ~5% within reach.
Banks such as Morgan Stanley expect China’s share of global exports to rise to ~16.5% by 2030 (from ~15% today), driven mainly by EVs, batteries, robotics and heavy machinery. That very success, however, is also intensifying protectionist risks in China’s key destination markets.
The China Survival Guide for Western Businesses
Entity setup, WeChat strategy, hiring your first local team. 12+ years on the ground in Shanghai.
