📈 Bull market 2026: Goldman Sachs forecasts a “slow bull” for the coming year.
- The expectation: gains of up to 38% by the end of 2027, driven by AI innovation and massive private wealth in China shifting from real estate into equities.
🚫 The account wall: For foreign retail investors, direct access is nearly impossible. You need a Chinese bank account and a residence permit.
⏳ Stock Connect won’t help: The program that usually gives foreigners access to Chinese equities excludes newly listed companies.
- It often takes weeks or months before new stocks even qualify – if they qualify at all. Too late for IPO gains.
💼 Big players only: Institutional investors like Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs can participate via the QFII program (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors). Retail investors? Locked out.
Good to know
The valuation gap is massive: China’s top 10 tech companies have a combined market cap of USD 2.5 trillion.In the US? USD 25 trillion – ten times as much. US tech makes up 40% of the S&P 500, while Chinese counterparts account for only 15% of local indices.
Takeaway
The “buy local” trend (国潮) has now reached semiconductors and AI.With low interest rates on savings accounts and real estate losing its appeal, Chinese households are pouring their savings (around USD 23 trillion) into the stock market – a risky, but powerful fuel for the current rally.
The China Survival Guide for Western Businesses
Entity setup, WeChat strategy, hiring your first local team. 12+ years on the ground in Shanghai.
