China’s export machine is running at full speed. In January and February, exports rose by 21.8%, three times stronger than economists had expected.
The trade surplus of $213.6 billion is the highest two-month figure ever recorded.
The numbers in context
China traditionally combines the data for January and February to smooth out holiday effects from the Lunar New Year.
Analysts had forecast growth of 7.1%, and both Reuters and Bloomberg missed the mark. Instead of slowing after the record year of 2025, with a surplus of $1.2 trillion, the pace is accelerating.
Import growth: With an increase of 19.8%, China’s domestic market is also showing surprising resilience despite the property crisis.
The great detour
The trend toward the “de-Americanization” of Chinese trade flows is accelerating. Beijing is finding new buyers at record speed.
Region | Growth | Significance |
|---|---|---|
EU | +27.8 % | Germany, France, and Italy all up 30% |
ASEAN | +29.4 % | Largest trading partner as a bloc |
Africa | +50 % | Most dramatic expansion |
USA | -11 % | But an improvement from -30% in December |
The pattern is even more drastic on the import side: China is buying 43% more from India and 36% more from South Korea, but 27% less from the US.
Tech as the turbocharger
One driver stands out: semiconductors and technology exports. The global AI boom is pulling demand for Chinese chips and components higher.
“The strength in integrated circuits fits with the AI investment boom,” says Xu Tianchen, Senior Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Sources: CNBC, BBC, AP, SCMP
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