China’s birth rate hit a record low in 2025: only 7.9 million babies were born—17% fewer than in 2024 and less than half of the 2016 peak.
Beijing is pumping billions into baby bonuses, but young Chinese are saying: "Too little, too late."
Details
Subsidies falling flat: Beijing’s national support programs, such as the monthly subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan ($1,534) for children under three, are seen as a "drop in the bucket."
- High youth unemployment and skyrocketing living costs are massive deterrents for young couples, despite government bonuses.
More rings, fewer pacifiers: In 2025, the number of marriages rose by 8.5% (Shanghai: +38.7%). However, demographers remain pessimistic about the birth rate: "A return to positive growth is almost impossible."
Projections for 2100: People over 60 already make up 20% of the population today. UN forecasts suggest that by 2100, half of all Chinese people could be over the age of 60.
Robots instead of babies: Faced with a shrinking workforce, Beijing is increasingly focusing on the "development of a high-quality population." 👉🏻 In practice, this means massive investment in industrial automation to compensate for labor shortages through robots.
The legacy of the "One-Child Policy": January 1, 2026, marked the 10th anniversary of the abolition of the One-Child Policy. However, the trauma runs deep 👇🏻
When Peng Peiyun (head of the Family Planning Commission from 1988–1998) died in December 2025, there was little sympathy on the Chinese internet. "Those children are waiting for you in the afterlife," wrote one Weibo user. Forced abortions and sterilizations characterized her era.
Takeaway
China risks "growing old before it gets rich." The demographic shift is likely "irreversible," despite actions such as a new VAT on condoms.
The China Survival Guide for Western Businesses
Entity setup, WeChat strategy, hiring your first local team. 12+ years on the ground in Shanghai.
