Since January 1, Chinese exporters need a government license for silver exports.
What sounds like bureaucracy is actually the birth of a new commodity weapon: China controls up to 70% of globally traded refined silver and is now elevating the metal to the same regulatory level as rare earths.
Musk is right: Without silver, the high-tech world grinds to a halt. A modern EV requires 25 to 50 grams, and a single solar panel needs around 20 grams of the metal.
Details
📈 Record chase: Silver had its best year since 1979 in 2025. The price more than doubled in 12 months (briefly exceeding $80 per ounce).
⚡ Indispensable for green tech: Silver is the most electrically conductive substance and is virtually irreplaceable in solar panels, EVs, and AI data centers.
🛡️ Defense: The precious metal is also critical for modern weapons systems. The US hastily added silver to its "critical minerals" list in November 2025.
🏭 China means business: Only 44 companies received export licenses for 2026-2027. Requirements: 80 tons of annual production capacity and a $30 million credit line.
⛏️ The supply trap: Silver is 70–80% a byproduct from copper or zinc mines.
- This means: Even if the price explodes, you can't simply produce "more silver"—you'd have to mine more copper first. This makes supply extremely inelastic and Beijing's control all the more powerful.
Can silver be replaced?
Theoretically yes, but substitution takes years: Copper can replace silver in solar cells, but converting a single factory takes 18 months. With 300 factories worldwide, that's at least 4 years—too slow for acute shortages.
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